2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The 2026 PGA Tour season is in full swing, and all eyes are on the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. As the first “Signature Event” of the 2026 calendar, it features a condensed 80-player field, no cut, and a massive $20 million purse.

But the real buzz in the betting world isn’t just about the scenery—it’s about the predictions coming from the proprietary SportsLine golf model built by Mike McClure. This model has famously nailed 16 majors, including a perfect run through the 2025 season (Masters, PGA, and Open Championship), and its simulations for Pebble Beach are raising eyebrows.

2026 Event Overview & Field

• Dates: February 12 – 15, 2026

• Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links & Spyglass Hill

• Format: Signature Event (80 Players, No Cut)

• The Favorites: * Scottie Scheffler (+300): Coming off an American Express win and a strong showing at the WM Phoenix Open.

  • Rory McIlroy (+1325): The defending champion making his 2026 season debut.

  • Tommy Fleetwood (+2200): The 2025 FedExCup champion looking for his first win of the new year.

Surprising Predictions from the “16 Majors” Model

The SportsLine model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and its projected leaderboard looks significantly different from the current betting odds. Here are the most “shocking” takes for the weekend:

1. The Big Fade: Chris Gotterup

Despite being the hottest golfer on the planet—winning two of his first three starts in 2026, including last week’s WM Phoenix Open—the model is fading Gotterup. While oddsmakers have him at +3000 (the same tier as Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele), the model predicts he will not even crack the Top 10. The logic? This is his debut at Pebble Beach, a course where local knowledge and “poa annua” putting experience are historically more important than raw momentum.

2. The Model’s Darling: Si Woo Kim (+2500)

The model is “extremely high” on Si Woo Kim to finish in the Top 2. Kim has been remarkably consistent in 2026, with no finish worse than T11 in four events. His elite “Tee-to-Green” numbers and his T5 finish here last year make him the model’s preferred play over several players with shorter odds.

3. Prop Value: Rory McIlroy & Hideki Matsuyama

While the model isn’t picking McIlroy to repeat as the outright winner, it sees massive value in specific props:

• McIlroy Top European (+370): The model loves his driving distance advantage on the two easiest Par 5s at Pebble.

• Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 (+300): After a heartbreaking playoff loss in Phoenix, the model expects Matsuyama’s iron play to keep him in the hunt through Sunday.

Current Betting Odds (Top 10)

Expert “Value” Picks

• The “Course Horse”: Justin Rose (+2500). Rose won here in 2023 and is fresh off a win at the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open.

• The Longshot: Pierceson Coody (+6600). A sleeper who has already earned over $1M in 2026 and has finished in the top 20 of every event he’s entered this season.