Oklahoma City started 4-0, then lost three rotation regulars in six days. Jalen Williams dislocated his left ankle and fractured his fibula late in the October 25 win over the Clippers, and GM Sam Presti said he will miss most, and likely all, of the season. Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder in the same game and also needs surgery. Then on October 30 the team announced that Chet Holmgren had a biological treatment on a small tear in his right patellar tendon and will be out for at least 8-to-10 weeks, which points to a return around the new year. Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle against Phoenix on October 26 and has missed both games since. The team has not given a timeline.
The Thunder lost both of those games, 120-96 at Dallas and 119-98 at Houston, and are now 4-2. For fantasy managers the question is who picks up the minutes, shots and counting stats those four players leave behind. Three games of data are not a big sample. They do show a clear rotation, though.
The new rotation
Over the last three games Mark Daigneault has started Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein. Rookie center Aday Mara, Jaylin Williams and Bennett Stirtz make up most of the bench. Two-way players Josh Dix and Micah Peavy are getting spot minutes. Of the five players who started opening night, only Gilgeous-Alexander and Hartenstein are still healthy.
Ajay Mitchell: start him every night
Mitchell is the biggest winner. He came off the bench for the first three games and averaged 11.3 points on 11 shots in about 24 minutes. In his three starts he has scored 30 against Phoenix, 29 at Dallas and 6 at Houston. That works out to 21.7 points per game on 15 field goal attempts. His minutes have stayed in the 25-to-28 range, so the jump comes from usage, not playing time. With Williams out, Mitchell is the second option on offense.
His full-season line of 16.5 points, 3.8 assists and 1.7 steals in 25.5 minutes is already a top-100 profile in category leagues. The weak spot is the three-point shot. He is shooting 22.2 percent from deep, so he will not help much in threes yet. His 51.3 percent from the field and the steals make up for most of that. The Houston game shows what his floor looks like when the team gets blown out and the starters sit. Still, he should be in your lineup every night. If he is somehow available in your league, add him before anyone else on this list.
Isaiah Hartenstein: more rebounds, but a minutes cap
Hartenstein has started every game. Since Holmgren went out, his production has gone up but his minutes have not. In the three games Holmgren played, Hartenstein averaged 7.3 points and 7.0 rebounds in 22.4 minutes. In the three games since, he has averaged 11.7 points and 11.3 rebounds, including 13 boards against Phoenix and 14 at Dallas. Over that stretch he has played between 24 and 26 minutes every night.
That minutes cap is the main reason to temper expectations. Hartenstein is a strong rebounder and a good field goal percentage asset (52.3 percent). He has only one block in six games, though, and just 2.0 assists, which is a low number for a center OKC uses as a passing hub. He is a solid starter in points leagues and helps with rebounds in category leagues. He is unlikely to be a top-60 player unless the Thunder give him more than 30 minutes, and so far they have not.
Aday Mara: the add for blocks
The 7-foot-3 rookie from Michigan is the speculative add here. His minutes have gone up in each of the last three games: 19.8, then 20.9, then 27.7 at Houston. Over those three games he averaged 8.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. In Houston he had 7 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 4 blocks. He had his first double-double against Phoenix with 11 points and 10 rebounds in under 20 minutes.
His rebounds and blocks per minute are as good as any backup center in the league. His shooting should hold up because nearly all of his attempts come right at the rim. He is at 51.9 percent from the field and has not tried a three. Fouls are the risk. He had 5 against Phoenix and 4 at Dallas, and a big man who fouls that often will have nights where he plays 15 minutes. Even so, in leagues with 12 or more teams, a center getting 20-plus minutes with Holmgren out until about January is worth a roster spot if you need blocks. Expect his playing time to rise and fall from game to game. When Holmgren comes back, Mara’s role will shrink.
Jared McCain: the minutes are there, the shooting is not
McCain has gone from about 20 minutes a night off the bench to about 29 as a starter. His shot attempts have gone up from 7.7 to 13.7 per game. The shots are not falling. He scored 18 against Phoenix with four threes, then 10 at Dallas and 10 at Houston. He went 0-for-11 from three in those last two games. For the season he is shooting 35.9 percent from the field and 32.4 percent from three.
McCain’s value in fantasy comes from threes and points, and he is not adding much else, with 2.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists a game. So a cold stretch hurts more than it would for a player who fills other categories. Do not drop him. He is getting starter minutes on a team that needs scoring, and he made six threes on opening night. Keep him on your bench until his shooting returns to his career norms. Don’t start him over a guard with a steadier role.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: more defensive attention
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 26.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.2 steals on 46.5 percent shooting. That is still elite production, but it is below the level he has set the last few seasons. He is shooting 30.0 percent from three and his assist numbers are down. Without Williams and Holmgren, defenses can focus on him more, and the lineups around him have fewer threats.
Do not sell low. Over the long run, losing two of his best teammates should mean he takes even more of the offense, which helps his fantasy value. Three-point shooting at 30 percent over six games is too small a sample to mean much. The one thing that could hold him back is blowouts. He played 32.7 minutes a game in the first six, and the two losses kept him from playing big minutes late.
Deeper-league notes
- Kenrich Williams has started the last three games and had 11 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists at Houston. He is averaging 13.7 minutes for the season. For now he is only a streamer in very deep leagues.
- Bennett Stirtz is playing 15.5 minutes a game and averaging 4.7 points. He would get more shots if Caruso misses much more time. He is not worth adding yet.
- Jaylin Williams is playing 18.2 minutes but is shooting 20.8 percent from the field. Leave him on waivers.
- Alex Caruso averaged 9.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists in 19.0 minutes before he got hurt. Stash him in deep leagues. When he comes back, he will cut into Stirtz’s and Kenrich Williams’s minutes more than Mitchell’s.
Schedule
The Thunder play four games in Week 3: at Cleveland on Monday, home against Cleveland on Wednesday, at Memphis on Friday and home against Washington on Saturday. That gives you four games from Mitchell and Hartenstein, and it is a good week to try Mara. On the Friday-Saturday back-to-back, watch whether Daigneault rests any of his remaining veterans. If he does, Mara and Stirtz would pick up the extra minutes.
See today's NBA pts+rebs+assts lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.