Thursday night at Soldier Field matches two 4-2 teams coming off wins, and the final injury reports matter more for fantasy than the standings do. New England has ruled out three cornerbacks and both starting guards. Chicago is without Kyle Monangai for a third straight game. Those absences point in a clear direction: lean into the Bears’ passing game and temper expectations for the Patriots’ ground attack. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The injury report that shapes this game
Patriots
- Out: CB Carlton Davis III (neck), CB Karon Prunty (hamstring), CB Channing Canada (hamstring), LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), RG Ben Brown (knee).
- Questionable: RT Morgan Moses (foot), S Kevin Byard III (chest), S Craig Woodson (shoulder), LB Christian Elliss (chest).
- Off the report: WR A.J. Brown (ankle).
- Injured reserve: WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder) went on IR Monday after getting hurt on his 42-yard diving touchdown catch against the Jets. He can’t return before Week 12.
Mike Vrabel confirmed Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor will start at guard. If Moses can’t go, rookie Caleb Lomu would make his first NFL start at right tackle. That would leave Drake Maye with three new starters on the line on a short week. Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten were already on IR before all of this.
Bears
- Out: RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe), LB Jack Sanborn (concussion).
- Doubtful: LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring).
- Questionable: CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip), who was a full participant Wednesday.
- Off the report: OL Jonah Jackson, who should start at guard.
Bears passing game: the best spot on the board
Caleb Williams came back from a three-game hamstring absence and immediately looked like the player fantasy managers drafted. He went 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a touchdown in the 31-23 win in Atlanta. Now he faces a secondary that will be down to Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Charles Woods and Kindle Vildor at corner, possibly with banged-up safeties behind them.
Luther Burden III is the receiver to build around. He caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards against Atlanta and was clearly Williams’ first read. With Davis out again and two depth corners out with him, the Patriots don’t have a clean answer for that matchup. Start him as a WR2 with upside.
Colston Loveland caught six passes on seven targets and scored on a 14-yard touchdown in the first quarter. He was the Bears’ only receiving touchdown that day. Over the middle he gets a Patriots linebacker group that has Elliss listed as questionable. He is a strong TE1 play this week.
Rome Odunze is the tough call. He caught three of four targets for 39 yards in Atlanta, which was clearly third in line behind Burden and Loveland. If Gonzalez shadows him, Odunze is a boom-or-bust WR3. Start him in deeper leagues, but don’t expect volume to bail him out.
Bears backfield: Swift gets the touchdowns, Johnson gets the work
Without Monangai, the Bears’ run game has lost its punch. Chicago ran for 98 yards on 3.0 yards per carry in Atlanta. D’Andre Swift turned 16 carries into only 44 yards but scored twice, and he added four catches for 26 yards. Roschon Johnson had 13 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown, plus two catches for 34 yards.
That is very close to a split. Swift is still the back to start because he has the goal-line role and gets more passing-game work, but treat him as a touchdown-dependent RB2, not a workhorse. Johnson is a flex option only in deep leagues. The bigger takeaway is that this offense now runs through Williams, so the passing game is where the scoring should come from.
Patriots: Trust Maye, not the run game
Drake Maye has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three straight games. That includes the 26-19 win over the Jets, when he went 18 of 32 for 235 yards with three scores and no interceptions while adding 24 rushing yards on four carries. His legs matter more than usual this week. If a makeshift line struggles to give him a clean pocket, his scrambling floor is what keeps him a QB1. He is a confident start, but give him a lower ceiling than his last three games suggest.
The backfield is where the line injuries hurt most. New England rushed for 148 yards against the Jets, but split it three ways. Corey Kiner had 11 carries for 57 yards, Rhamondre Stevenson had 14 for 36, and TreVeyon Henderson had seven for 31. Henderson practiced fully Tuesday with an ankle issue. With two backup guards and a three-man committee, none of these backs is better than a flex. Stevenson is the likeliest to get goal-line work. Henderson has the most explosive upside if he gets space but got only seven carries last week.
Patriots pass catchers after Doubs
DeMario Douglas led New England with seven catches on eight targets for 86 yards and a nine-yard touchdown. With Doubs on IR, he is the most reliable target Maye has. He is a solid WR3 in PPR, with more upside than usual if the line pushes Maye toward quick throws.
A.J. Brown is the volatile one. In his first game back from injured reserve he drew 10 targets but caught just three for 27 yards. Reports had him dropping three passes. He is off the injury report, though, and 10 targets in his first game back shows the Patriots want him involved. With Doubs out he could see even more. Start him as a WR2 and expect better than last week’s three catches.
Hunter Henry caught four of five targets for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. Chicago will be without Sanborn and probably Edwards, so Henry should see thin linebacker coverage over the middle. He is a solid TE1 option this week. Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III are the next receivers in line for snaps with Doubs out, but neither has shown enough to trust in fantasy yet.
Start/sit summary
- Start with confidence: Caleb Williams, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Drake Maye.
- Start with some risk: A.J. Brown, D’Andre Swift, DeMario Douglas (PPR), Hunter Henry.
- Deep-league flex only: Rome Odunze, Roschon Johnson, Rhamondre Stevenson.
- Sit: TreVeyon Henderson, Corey Kiner, the Patriots’ depth receivers.
The deciding factor is the line of scrimmage. Chicago’s receivers face a secondary missing three corners. New England’s backs run behind two backup guards. If you are choosing between similar players for Thursday, take the Bears’ pass catchers and Maye over anyone in the Patriots’ backfield.
See today's NFL pass tds lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.