We have officially reached the “Win or Go Home” stage of the 2026 Winter Olympics. As of today, Monday, February 16, the preliminary dust has settled in Milan, and the bracket for the medal round is etched in stone.
While the NBA stars were putting on a show in Los Angeles last night, the hockey world was witnessing a shift in power. Here is your preview of the Olympic Hockey medal rounds.
Women’s Tournament: The Dream Final is Set
The semifinals wrapped up just hours ago, and for the first time in Olympic history, the gap between the “Big Two” and the rest of the world felt both massive and microscopic at the same time.
The Gold Medal Matchup: Canada vs. USA
-
When: Thursday, February 19
-
The Story: Team USA is on a historic tear. They haven’t conceded a goal in five straight games, including today’s 5–0 semifinal demolition of Sweden.
-
The Rivalry: Canada had a much tougher path today, narrowly escaping with a 2–1 win over Switzerland. The Swiss defense nearly pulled off the upset of the century, but Canada’s veteran poise won out.
-
X-Factor: Hayley Scamurra (USA) and Abbey Murphy (USA) are playing at a speed that Canada struggled to match in their preliminary meeting (a 5–0 USA win). Canada will need a “Wall of Binnington” type performance from their goaltender to reclaim gold.
Men’s Tournament: The Knockout Stage Begins
The preliminary round ended on Sunday, and the field has been sliced into the “Elites” and the “Challengers.” Canada, the USA, Slovakia, and Finland have earned automatic byes to the Quarterfinals.
The Qualification Round (Tomorrow, Feb 17)
The remaining eight teams play tomorrow in a single-elimination “Play-In” to see who joins the top seeds on Wednesday.
| Matchup | Favorite | What to Watch |
| Sweden vs. Latvia | Sweden | Sweden is the best 7-seed in history. They fired 111 shots in their last two games. |
| Czechia vs. Denmark | Czechia | Lukas Dostal needs to be perfect; Denmark is a “trap” team that plays heavy. |
| Switzerland vs. Italy | Switzerland | The host Italians are the sentimental favorites, but the Swiss are NHL-heavy. |
| Germany vs. France | Germany | Leon Draisaitl has been quiet; expect him to explode in this elimination game. |
The “Heavyweight” Quarterfinals (Wednesday, Feb 18)
The winners of tomorrow’s games will face the rested giants. Here is how the path to the podium looks:
-
Canada (1): They look invincible. Connor McDavid is leading the tournament with 9 points in 3 games. They will face the winner of Czechia/Denmark.
-
USA (2): The Americans were the only other team to go 3–0. Their speed in the transition game, led by Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes, is the best in the tournament.
-
Slovakia (3): The surprise of the Games. Juraj Slafkovsky has evolved into a “grown man” superstar, leading the Slovaks to a Group B title.
-
Finland (4): The defending champs are the masters of the 1–0 win. They are boring, disciplined, and terrifying to play in a medal round.
Medal Predictions
If the seeds hold, we are looking at a USA vs. Finland and Canada vs. Slovakia Semifinal on Friday.
-
Gold Favorite: Canada. They have too much depth. If their fourth line of Horvat, Wilson, and Celebrini is better than most teams’ first lines, they are nearly impossible to beat over 60 minutes.
-
The Spoiler: Sweden. If they beat Latvia tomorrow, they face Team USA on Wednesday. That is a “Gold Medal” quality matchup happening in the Quarterfinals. If the Swedes win that, the entire bracket breaks open.
