Three teams are set, one spot is still open, and pitching has owned this October. The Dodgers and Brewers meet in the NLCS for the second straight year starting Sunday in Milwaukee. The Rays swept the Yankees and are resting at home. The White Sox and Guardians play a winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 tonight in Cleveland to decide who heads to Tropicana Field on Monday. Postseason slates are short and lineups are concentrated, so every arm and every batting-order spot carries weight for DFS and playoff fantasy players. Here is where the edges are.
NLCS Game 1: The Best Pitching Duel of the Postseason
Dave Roberts has named Tarik Skubal for Game 1 on Sunday at American Family Field (5 p.m. PT, FOX), and Milwaukee is lined up to counter with Jacob Misiorowski. It is the matchup the bracket was built for.
Misiorowski finished the regular season 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP across 174.2 innings, and he enters as the presumptive NL Cy Young winner. His NLDS opener was the one blemish on his October resume: San Diego fouled off pitch after pitch and pushed him out after four innings and two runs, even with his four-seamer sitting above 101 mph. The Dodgers have not solved him either. In Game 3 of last year’s NLCS he struck out nine over five innings and allowed one run.
Skubal went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA over 26 starts and 158.2 innings split between Detroit and Los Angeles after the deadline trade, then opened the NLDS by holding Atlanta to one run on two hits over six innings with seven strikeouts.
Fantasy read: Both starters belong at the top of any Sunday pitcher pool. Misiorowski carries the bigger strikeout ceiling, while Skubal offers the steadier innings floor. With two aces on the mound, this is not the game to load up on hitters from either side.
Game 2 and the Dodgers Lineup Question
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets Game 2 on Monday on regular rest. Last year’s World Series MVP dominated Atlanta in NLDS Game 3: seven innings, one run, four hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts. He is the safest pitching anchor left in the National League bracket.
Shohei Ohtani Is Hitting Through It
The bigger Dodgers storyline is at the plate. Ohtani is limited to hitting this postseason after a September stint on the injured list with lingering left knee and right biceps issues. He opened the NLDS 2-for-8 with two strikeouts and no extra-base hits through two games, and Roberts dropped him to fifth in the order for Game 3 against Chris Sale. He has not homered since Aug. 18.
The ceiling is still the ceiling, and one swing changes a short series. But the version of Ohtani in this lineup right now is chasing more and driving the ball less, so in single-game formats he should be priced and treated as a strong bat rather than an automatic captain. The Dodgers found their offense elsewhere in the NLDS: Max Muncy supplied power all series, and Andy Pages, hitless in his first seven at-bats, broke a long drought with runners in scoring position with the go-ahead two-run single in the Game 4 clincher. Muncy is the Dodgers bat with the cleanest recent form heading into Milwaukee.
Milwaukee: Chourio Is the Engine
The Brewers beat San Diego in four games by winning close: a walk-off in Game 2 and a 3-1 clincher at Petco Park on Wednesday. Jackson Chourio was at the center of all of it. His two-run single off Mason Miller in the ninth inning won Game 2, and his RBI single in Game 4 pushed him past Ryan Braun for the franchise postseason RBI record.
Garrett Mitchell was the other difference-maker in the clincher, with an RBI single, a leadoff triple that set up the go-ahead run and a catch at the center-field wall that took a tying two-run homer away from Manny Machado. Behind the starters, the bullpen of Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill closed the door.
Fantasy read: Chourio is the priority Brewers bat in every format. Mitchell is the cheaper way into this lineup after a clincher that showed what he adds on both sides of the ball. Remember the context, too: Los Angeles swept Milwaukee in last year’s NLCS, and the Brewers need their bats to show up early against Skubal and Yamamoto to avoid a repeat.
The Rays: A Pitching Staff Built for October
Tampa Bay swept the Yankees by scores of 1-0, 5-2 and 4-3, holding New York to five runs in three games. The sweep sends the Rays to the third ALCS in franchise history.
Drew Rasmussen set the tone in Game 1, carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning before Austin Wells doubled, in a 1-0 win over Gerrit Cole. Closer Bryan Baker saved all three games. In the Game 3 clincher at Yankee Stadium, Ryan Vilade homered off Max Fried in his postseason debut and Víctor Mesa Jr. hit the tiebreaking two-run homer in the sixth.
Rasmussen is in line to start ALCS Game 1 on Monday, though Kevin Cash has not made it official until the opponent is set.
Fantasy read: Rays pitching is the play on Monday. Rasmussen gets a full week of rest and a home start against an opponent coming off a winner-take-all game, and Baker is the clear save option. Rays hitters are a lower-priority stack, but their run production came from all over the lineup, which keeps cheap Rays bats like Mesa in play as salary savers.
Tonight: White Sox at Guardians, ALDS Game 5
The road team has won every game of this series. Chicago took Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, starting with a 3-0 shutout, and the Guardians answered by winning both games in Chicago, including a 9-5 win in Game 4.
Gavin Williams starts for Cleveland. He led the AL with 248 strikeouts and struck out 11 over five-plus innings in Game 2, but he also recorded the final three outs of Game 4 on 18 pitches, so watch his pitch count early. Sean Burke starts for the White Sox after winning Game 2 in bulk relief, allowing one run on one hit.
At the plate, José Ramírez came alive in Chicago after a slow start in Cleveland, while Miguel Vargas homered in the ninth inning of Game 4 and has been Chicago’s most consistent on-base threat.
Fantasy read: Williams is the strikeout play tonight, with the Game 4 relief work as the one risk. Ramírez is the bat to build around. Whoever wins will reach Tampa Bay on Monday without its best rested starter, a real boost for the Rays arms in Game 1.
LCS Priority List
- Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers: Best strikeout upside left in the field, facing a Dodgers lineup with a slumping Ohtani.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers: 10 strikeouts in his NLDS start and the most dependable workload of any starter remaining.
- Drew Rasmussen, Rays: Fully rested, at home, against an opponent coming off an elimination game.
- Jackson Chourio, Brewers: The run producer at the center of every Milwaukee rally.
- Max Muncy, Dodgers: The Los Angeles bat in the best form entering the series.
- Bryan Baker, Rays: Three saves in three games and the unquestioned ninth-inning arm.
The NLCS begins Sunday and the ALCS on Monday. Pitching has decided almost every series so far, and the arms above are where postseason fantasy lineups should start.
See today's MLB lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.