Thursday Night Football in Week 9 looked like a marquee matchup when the schedule came out. It is now something very different. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve after a right thumb injury that required surgery, Tyler Huntley is out with turf toe, and the Ravens will start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano at home against a 5-2 Jaguars team that just beat Indianapolis 42-7. For fantasy managers, the angle is simple: Jacksonville’s offense gets a strong spot, and almost every Baltimore skill player becomes a riskier start than their name suggests.
The Ravens Quarterback Situation
Both of Baltimore’s top quarterbacks went down early in the 36-10 loss at Buffalo. Fagnano, a 25-year-old out of UConn who made the roster on the strength of a good preseason (56-of-75, 509 yards, three touchdowns, one interception), came in as the emergency option and went 10-of-21 for 91 yards with an interception and a lost fumble. He was also seen at practice this week with a large brace on his right ankle, though he has no game designation. The Ravens moved to add Jacoby Brissett from Arizona, but Brissett will not be available Thursday, so this one is all Fagnano.
The context makes it worse. Baltimore has scored 10, 13 and 10 points in its last three games, all losses, and has fallen to 4-4 and last in the AFC North. That slump started with Jackson and Huntley both available. Now the Ravens face a Jacksonville defense allowing just 15.9 points per game.
Jacksonville: Start With Confidence
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Lawrence is having the most efficient season of his career: 1,690 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions on 198 attempts, a league-high 8.6 percent touchdown rate and 8.5 yards per attempt. He only needed 14 throws against the Colts to post 210 yards and three scores before sitting the fourth quarter. The one real concern is volume. If Jacksonville builds a big lead early, the Jaguars can lean on the run and keep Lawrence’s attempts low again. Even so, a Baltimore defense that has allowed 25.4 points per game and 71 points over its last two outings is not one to sit a quarterback against. He is a confident QB1 this week.
Brenton Strange, TE
This is the matchup to circle. The Ravens have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season, and Strange is Lawrence’s second-most targeted pass catcher with 35 targets. His one touchdown so far undersells his role, and his 46-yard catch against Indianapolis showed he can make plays downfield too. At a position where most managers are streaming anyway, Strange is a top-10 tight end play this week.
Parker Washington, WR
Washington leads the Jaguars in targets and has turned them into 27 catches, 432 yards and four touchdowns, a healthy 16.0 yards per catch. Baltimore’s secondary has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins (questionable, illness) have both struggled. Washington is a solid WR2 with a high touchdown ceiling.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB, and the Backfield
Tuten broke out against the Colts with 104 rushing yards and a touchdown on 16 carries plus two catches for 55 yards and another score. He is questionable with ankle and foot injuries, and head coach Liam Coen has called him a game-time decision. If he plays, he is an RB2 with a great game script: Baltimore allows 3.8 yards per carry and has given up 10 rushing touchdowns. If he sits, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (45 carries, 209 yards) becomes the early-down back and a startable flex option in a game where Jacksonville should be running out the clock. Tuten managers should grab Rodriguez before kickoff if he is available and check the inactives about 90 minutes before the game.
The Rest of the Receivers
Jakobi Meyers is off the final injury report after dealing with hamstring and ankle issues and is a reasonable flex in deeper leagues. Brian Thomas Jr. scored last week, but he has just 10 catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns all season on 21 targets. That is not a usage profile you can trust, and the same goes for Travis Hunter (six catches, 76 yards, one touchdown). Both are bench options until the targets show up.
Jaguars Defense
An undrafted rookie making his first start, in prime time, with a bad ankle, behind an offense that has not cleared 13 points in three weeks. The Jaguars D/ST is a top-three play this week. Defensive end Travon Walker is questionable with a rib injury; his absence would lower the sack ceiling somewhat but does not change the ranking.
Baltimore: Lower Expectations Across the Board
Derrick Henry, RB
Henry has 632 yards and eight touchdowns on 158 carries, which is exactly 4.0 yards per carry, well below his usual standard. Now he gets a Jacksonville front that ranks among the toughest in the league against running backs, and a quarterback situation that will let defenses stack the box. The case for starting him rests entirely on the goal-line role that has produced those eight scores. He stays in lineups as a touchdown-dependent RB2, but his floor is lower than at any point this season, and the game script could pull him off the field if Baltimore falls behind early.
Zay Flowers, WR
Flowers has been productive with 40 catches for 608 yards and three touchdowns, but he was held without a catch once Fagnano took over in Buffalo. He is the only Ravens receiver worth considering, and a trailing game script could produce volume, but the quality of those targets is a real problem. Treat him as a low-end WR3 and start him only if your alternatives are worse.
Mark Andrews, TE, and the Rest
Andrews has 29 catches for just 218 yards and one touchdown, 7.5 yards per catch, and the downgrade at quarterback makes that worse. He is a streaming-level option at best. Rashod Bateman (15.2 yards per catch) and rookie Ja’Kobi Lane (nine catches, 89 yards) are bench-only. Do not start Fagnano in any format, even two-QB leagues, unless you have no other choice.
The Bottom Line
- Start: Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Jaguars D/ST, Bhayshul Tuten if active
- Flex if needed: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (especially if Tuten sits), Jakobi Meyers, Zay Flowers
- Start with lowered expectations: Derrick Henry
- Bench: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, every Ravens quarterback
Jacksonville has the best offense on the field, the better defense and the healthy quarterback. Build your Thursday lineups around the Jaguars, and treat the Ravens as touchdown-or-bust plays until Brissett is ready to take over.
See today's NFL lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.