Final Countdown: Chaos and Clarity as the NBA Cup Group Stage Ends

The 2025 NBA Cup Group Stage is concluding in a frenzy of action, with just three days left to determine the eight teams advancing to the knockout rounds. As the final Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday tournament nights unfold, several groups are on a knife-edge, with point differential and crucial head-to-head battles set to decide who punches their ticket to the quarterfinals on December 9-10.

Here is a look at the teams that have already clinched, the biggest games remaining, and what’s on the line this week.

The Clinched Team

Only one team has definitively secured its spot as a group winner through Monday’s games:

• East Group A Winner: Toronto Raptors (3-0, +53 PD)

  • The Raptors utilized a massive point differential and an unblemished record to secure the group early, becoming the first team to advance to the knockout stage.

The Wild West: Groups Still Hanging in the Balance

The Western Conference is a mad scramble, with every group winner and both Wild Card spots still undecided.

West Group A: The OKC/Wolves/Suns Triangle

• The Situation: OKC (2-0, +63 PD) and Phoenix (2-0, +23 PD) are currently tied for the lead, but Minnesota (2-1, +53 PD) has the best point differential among the three, making it a dangerous Wild Card contender.

• Crucial Remaining Games:

  • Wednesday, Nov 26: Timberwolves at Thunder (Massive game for group winner and Wild Card seeding)

  • Friday, Nov 28: Suns at Thunder (Could be a winner-take-all for the group)

• The Stakes: The winner of Wednesday’s Thunder-Wolves game gets a huge leg up. If OKC wins, they are nearly guaranteed a spot. If Minnesota wins, their enormous point differential could catapult them to the group title or secure the Wild Card spot.

West Group B: The L.A. Civil War

• The Situation: Lakers (2-0, +19 PD) and Clippers (2-0, +2 PD) are heading for a direct showdown to decide the group.

• Crucial Remaining Games:

  • Tuesday, Nov 25: Clippers at Lakers (Winner clinches the group and advances)

  • Wednesday, Nov 26: Grizzlies at Pelicans (Memphis [1-1] still has a Wild Card pulse)

  • Friday, Nov 28: Mavericks at Lakers (Mavericks [1-2] are a long shot, but this game affects the Lakers’ standing)

• The Stakes: Tonight’s Clippers vs. Lakers game is a pure elimination/advancement game. The winner of this game is the Group B champion.

West Group C: The Group of Death Scramble

• The Situation: Denver (2-1, +26 PD) and Portland (2-1, -18 PD) are currently tied, but Portland holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. San Antonio (1-1, +10 PD) is still lurking.

• Crucial Remaining Games:

  • Wednesday, Nov 26: Spurs at Trail Blazers (Winner controls their destiny)

  • Friday, Nov 28: Spurs at Nuggets

• The Stakes: This group is wide open. Denver’s excellent point differential gives them the best shot at the Wild Card if they don’t win the group outright. If San Antonio can win out, they could sneak through, even without the injured Victor Wembanyama.

The Wild East: Groups to Be Decided on Friday

The East has one secured spot (Raptors) but two groups still needing a decisive final game, with a heated Wild Card race forming.

East Group B: Detroit vs. Orlando Winner-Take-All

• The Situation: Detroit (2-0, +27 PD) and Orlando (2-0, +20 PD) are on a collision course.

• Crucial Remaining Game:

  • Friday, Nov 28: Magic at Pistons (Winner clinches the group and advances)

• The Stakes: This game is a simple championship final for the group. The loser, who will be 3-1, instantly becomes the top contender for the Eastern Conference Wild Card spot based on their strong record and point differential.

East Group C: Milwaukee’s Road Test

• The Situation: Milwaukee (2-0, +16 PD) controls its destiny, but Miami (2-1, +46 PD) has the best record among the runner-ups and is the current Wild Card favorite.

• Crucial Remaining Games:

  • Wednesday, Nov 26: Bucks at Heat (The Bucks will be without the injured Giannis Antetokounmpo in this critical road test.)

  • Friday, Nov 28: Bucks at Knicks

• The Stakes: If the Bucks lose on Wednesday, Miami takes the group lead, and the Knicks (1-1, -2 PD) have a chance to play spoiler on Friday. This group is relying heavily on tiebreakers and Miami’s huge point differential.

The next 72 hours are an all-out sprint for the $500,000-per-player prize. Expect highly competitive, foul-heavy games as teams intentionally chase a higher point differential in what has quickly become a meaningful and exciting mid-season event.

Would you like a prediction for which teams will ultimately make the eight-team Knockout Round?