Most teams have played eight to ten games, which is exactly the point where fantasy managers start making bad decisions. Early box scores are full of goal totals that came from a handful of shots, and full of stars stuck on one goal despite doing everything right. The fix is simple: look at shot volume, ice time and power-play role, and ignore shooting percentage for now. A typical NHL forward converts somewhere around one in ten shots. Anyone well above that on a small sample is due to come back down, and anyone well below it with real volume is a buy. Here is how the early leaderboard breaks down. All numbers are through Saturday’s games.
Hot Starts Running on Fumes
Artturi Lehkonen, COL
Six goals on 12 shots in eight games is a 50 percent shooting rate. He’s averaging 19.3 minutes and has two power-play goals, so the role is fine, but 1.5 shots per game doesn’t support a goal scorer. Lehkonen is a useful depth winger in deep leagues because of the Colorado environment. In a 10- or 12-team league, if someone will pay for a six-goal start, take the offer.
Alexis Lafrenière, NYR
Seven goals on 19 shots through ten games, a 36.8 percent rate. That’s tied for the third-most goals in the league with the fewest shots of anyone in that group. Kyle Connor has eight goals on 37 shots. Lafrenière’s 19.2 minutes a night is a real top-six role and he has three power-play points, so he should stay rostered. Just value him as a 2.5-point-per-week winger, not a goal leader.
Carter Verhaeghe, FLA
Six goals on 16 shots (37.5 percent) with only two assists. Verhaeghe has always shot well, but not this well, and eight points in nine games isn’t the same thing as a breakout. Keep him in your lineup in multi-category formats, but expect his goal pace to drop by half.
Mark Jankowski, CAR
The most obvious mirage on the board. Jankowski has six goals on 15 shots (40 percent) while averaging 13.8 minutes, the lowest ice time of anyone in the league with six or more goals. He has one power-play point. Carolina has been one of the league’s best teams at 7-1-1, but the minutes and the shots belong to a depth center. If you picked him up off waivers, enjoy the goals you already banked and release him before the slump starts.
Mark Stone, VGK
Stone is a different case. Seven goals on 20 shots (35 percent) won’t last, but he has 14 points in ten games and six power-play points playing alongside Jack Eichel, who is second in the league with 18 points. The goals will slow down, but the assists and power-play role will keep him a top-60 forward. Keep him unless someone offers a legitimate top-30 player.
Hot Starts That Are Mostly Real
Vasily Podkolzin, EDM
Podkolzin’s 31.8 percent shooting (seven goals on 22 shots) will drop off. But his role is the most valuable a winger can have in fantasy: skating with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at even strength, which The Hockey News and Rotowire have both reported. He’s averaging 19.2 minutes, has five power-play points and is a plus-12. McDavid leads the league with 23 points in eight games, 17 of them assists, and somebody on his wing has to finish those passes. Even if Podkolzin’s shooting falls back to a normal rate, a top-line winger on that unit is a 60-point player. Hold him. If his manager is nervous about regression, buy.
Kyle Connor, WPG
Connor has eight goals on 37 shots, the fourth-highest shot total in the league, and four power-play goals. His 21.6 percent shooting is high, but Connor has been a high-percentage shooter for years, and his shot volume puts him on pace for 300-plus shots. He’s still a top-10 fantasy winger.
Evan Bouchard, EDM
Sixteen points in eight games, 27 shots, 25.2 minutes a night and a plus-17. His 22.2 percent shooting means the six goals will slow down, but the shot volume and minutes are elite for a defenseman. Bouchard is the clear top fantasy defenseman right now, with Quinn Hughes (12 points, 26.7 minutes) next.
Cold Shooters to Buy Now
These players have the shot volume and ice time but haven’t been rewarded yet. Their managers are frustrated, which makes this the cheapest they’ll be all season.
- Jack Hughes, NJD — 32 shots, two goals (6.2 percent), 21.2 minutes. He still has nine points in eight games, so he isn’t really cold. He’s a point-per-game player whose goals haven’t come yet. Make an offer.
- Matthew Schaefer, NYI — 31 shots and zero goals while playing 25.8 minutes a night. The sophomore defenseman has seven assists anyway. A defenseman with that many shots and minutes won’t stay goalless for long, and he’s the best buy-low defenseman on the board.
- Timo Meier, NJD — 30 shots, one goal (3.3 percent). His 16.4 minutes is low for him, which is part of the problem, but the shot rate is elite. In leagues that count shots and hits, he’s already helping.
- Nazem Kadri, COL — 24 shots and no goals, with six assists in 20.1 minutes. He’ll start scoring soon given Colorado’s offense, which has scored 36 goals in eight games.
- Filip Forsberg, NSH — 24 shots, one goal, eight points, 21.1 minutes. His ice time and playmaking are intact. Buy now, while his stat line still shows one goal.
- Jackson Blake, CAR — 25 shots and one goal, but seven assists and four power-play points. If he’s on your waiver wire in a 12-team league, he’s an add.
- Tage Thompson, BUF — Leads the NHL with 42 shots. Five goals is fine but not what that volume should produce. In shots leagues, he’s a top-15 forward right now.
Goalie Room: Trust the Workload, Not the Save Percentage
Small samples affect goalies even more than shooters, so focus on starts and team context.
- Jake Oettinger, DAL — Three shutouts in six starts, a .952 save percentage and a 1.00 GAA. The numbers will come down, but Dallas has allowed only 13 goals as a team in eight games. He’s a top-five fantasy goalie.
- Linus Ullmark, OTT and Jeremy Swayman, BOS — Both are 6-1 with seven starts, tied for the league lead in wins. Ullmark’s .945 and Swayman’s .934 are above their usual levels, but the workload is clear in both cases.
- Daniil Tarasov, DET — A .965 save percentage in three appearances, while John Gibson is at .873 in six starts. Watch whether Detroit gives Tarasov more starts. He’s worth a speculative add in deep leagues.
- Kevin Lankinen, VAN — 1-6 with an .807 save percentage and a 6.40 GAA. Vancouver has allowed 45 goals in ten games, the most in the league, and Leevi Meriläinen is 1-1-1 with a .925. The starts could shift, but no Canucks goalie is worth starting right now.
- Dustin Wolf, CGY and Darcy Kuemper, LAK — Wolf is 1-4 with an .834 behind a Calgary team that has scored 14 goals in seven games. Kuemper is 0-3-1 with an .847 for a Kings team that hasn’t won yet. Bench both until their teams start scoring.
The Bottom Line
This week, trade players with high shooting percentages and low shot totals, like Lehkonen, Jankowski and Lafrenière, for players with lots of shots and few goals, like Hughes, Schaefer and Forsberg. Keep the players whose ice time and power-play role explain their production: Podkolzin, Connor, Bouchard and Stone. Shooting percentage evens out over a season, but ice time and shot volume carry over, so make roster moves based on those.
See today's NHL lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.