Three Western Conference playoff hopefuls are playing without a star, and all three are winning anyway. Oklahoma City is 8-2 with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace all sidelined. Minnesota is 8-3 with Anthony Edwards out after knee surgery. Portland is 6-3 while Ja Morant nurses a hamstring. That makes these three rotations the most important ones in fantasy right now: the minutes have already been redistributed, we have enough games to see where they went, and the timelines say none of these stars is coming back this month. Here is who to start, who to hold and who to avoid.
Oklahoma City: Ajay Mitchell Is a Starter Now
The Thunder’s injury list is brutal. Holmgren had a biological treatment on Oct. 30 for a small patellar tendon tear and is looking at 8-10 weeks, which points to early January at the earliest. Jalen Williams (fractured left fibula) and Wallace (shoulder labrum surgery) are long-term absences. That is three starters’ worth of minutes, and the redistribution has been clear.
Ajay Mitchell: start everywhere
Mitchell moved into the starting lineup on Oct. 26 and has not left it. In seven starts he is averaging 22.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 28.5 minutes, including a career-high 35 points on 14-of-20 shooting in the Nov. 6 NBA Cup win at Memphis. He is shooting 51.7% from the field on the season, which makes him a rare guard who helps your FG% instead of dragging it.
The caveats are real but manageable. He averages just 0.9 made threes per game, so he will not carry your 3PM category, and his assist rate is modest for someone with the ball this often. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.9 PPG) is still the engine. But a starter on an 8-2 team scoring at this efficiency is a locked-in weekly start in every format, and he should stay that way at least until Holmgren returns.
Isaiah Hartenstein: a category player, not a scorer
Hartenstein has started all 10 games and is posting 10.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.2 steals in 24.1 minutes. The 6.9 points are the problem. In points leagues he is a borderline starter; in 9-category leagues the boards and passing from the center spot make him a solid hold. Do not expect the minutes to climb much, because the Thunder are splitting the center job.
Aday Mara: the block streamer to roster
The reason Hartenstein’s minutes are capped is Mara, who is averaging 8.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 19.7 minutes on 62.5% shooting. That is elite block production per minute, and with Holmgren’s 3.0 blocks per game gone until January, Mara is the only real rim protector Oklahoma City has left. If you are chasing blocks in a category league, he is the add from this situation.
The rest of the Thunder rotation
Jared McCain (12.1 points, 1.7 threes in 25.2 minutes) is a fine streamer in deeper leagues but is shooting 41.8% from the field. Kenrich Williams has started seven games but averages only 6.8 points in 18.4 minutes, which is not enough to matter. Jaylin Williams (back) is shooting 20% from the field when he plays; leave him on waivers.
Minnesota: Ayo Dosunmu Is the Edwards Beneficiary
Edwards had right knee surgery in late October and was reported to be out up to two months, which puts his return around late December. He was averaging 33.3 points in four games before going down, so there are a lot of shots to replace. One player has taken most of them.
Ayo Dosunmu: start everywhere
Dosunmu has started all seven games since Edwards went down, and the numbers have jumped: 21.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.4 threes in 34.3 minutes as a starter, up from 12.0 points in four bench games before that. He has scored 26 in back-to-back games, at New Orleans on Nov. 6 and against Utah on Nov. 8, and is shooting 52.1% on the season. He is a top-tier guard while this lasts, and with Edwards out until late December, this lasts for most of the next six weeks.
LaMelo Ball: elite per-minute, capped minutes
Ball is averaging 18.3 points, 6.0 assists, 3.4 threes and 1.7 steals, which is a strong category line, but in only 27.7 minutes per game. That minute total is the ceiling on his value. He is a must-start, but do not expect a big jump just because Edwards is out; the extra shots have gone to Dosunmu, not to Ball.
Jaden McDaniels: quietly the best value
McDaniels is tied with Edwards for the team lead at 33.8 minutes per game and is averaging 17.0 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists on 51.3% shooting. If he was drafted as a defense-first forward in your league, his manager may still value him that way. He is worth a trade inquiry.
Who to leave alone
Jonathan Kuminga is starting and playing 30.7 minutes, but 12.3 points on 43.6% shooting with modest peripherals is not a fantasy starter line. Terrence Shannon Jr. (11.1 points in 21.5 minutes off the bench) is shooting 39.4% and is a points-league streamer only. Rudy Gobert remains a rebounds specialist at 12.1 per game with 7.8 points.
Portland: Jrue Holiday Over Scoot Henderson
Morant suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain on Oct. 29 and was initially expected to miss at least four weeks, with a re-evaluation set for late November. Coach Micah Nori said on Nov. 7 that Morant may not be out for as long as we thought, but the official timeline has not changed. Before the injury, Morant averaged 15.8 points and 5.5 assists in four games.
Jrue Holiday: the real replacement
Scoot Henderson took Morant’s starting spot, but Holiday took his job. Holiday has not started a game and is still averaging 13.0 points, 4.0 assists and 2.3 threes in 25.9 minutes on 51.3% shooting. He is a stable starter in 12-team category leagues and should stay that way after Morant returns, as long as his minutes stay in the mid-20s.
Scoot Henderson: avoid
Henderson has five starts and is averaging just 8.4 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 22.3 minutes, on 32.9% shooting. A starting point guard with 1.2 assists is not running the offense; he is standing next to it. He is droppable in standard leagues, and the starting role will be gone the moment Morant is cleared.
Deni Avdija is the engine
The real winner is Avdija, who is averaging 22.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists in 32.1 minutes and is the primary creator with Morant out. Damian Lillard (19.4 points, 2.8 threes) and Donovan Clingan (11.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.1 blocks on 58.3% shooting) round out a core that is all start-worthy. Toumani Camara’s 3.1 threes per game make him a useful specialist, with little else in the box score.
The Action Plan
- Must-start: Ajay Mitchell, Ayo Dosunmu, Deni Avdija, Jaden McDaniels.
- Add if available: Aday Mara (blocks), Jrue Holiday (12-team category leagues).
- Hold: Isaiah Hartenstein in category leagues, LaMelo Ball everywhere.
- Leave on waivers or drop: Scoot Henderson, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams.
- Stash on IL: Holmgren (early January), Edwards (late December), Morant (re-evaluation late November).
The timing is the key point. Morant could be back first, which hurts Henderson more than Holiday. Edwards and Holmgren are both looking at a return around the holidays, which gives Dosunmu and Mitchell roughly six more weeks as full-time starters. Ride them, and plan for the drop-off in your trade talks before the stars come back.
See today's NBA points lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.