As of February 14, 2026, the college basketball landscape is in full-blown “Bubble Watch” mode. With Selection Sunday just about a month away, the margin for error has evaporated for dozens of teams.
Based on the latest projections from bracketology experts like Joe Lunardi and major metrics (NET, SOR, and WAB), here is the current state of the bubble.
The “First Four” Danger Zone
These are the teams currently occupying the most precarious seats in the tournament. One bad loss could send them to the NIT; one “Quad 1” win could secure their plane tickets.
Last Four In (Projected for Dayton)
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Texas Longhorns (SEC): Currently 15–9. They’ve picked up massive wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt, but a 6–5 conference record keeps them on the edge.
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Missouri Tigers (SEC): Trending up rapidly. After winning four of their last five (including a thriller over Texas A&M), they are the “flavor of the week” for bracketologists.
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San Diego State Aztecs (Mountain West): A soft non-conference schedule is hurting them. They have the talent, but their 4–5 record in Q1/Q2 games is a red flag.
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New Mexico Lobos (Mountain West): They were safe two weeks ago but are “Stock Down” after back-to-back home losses to Utah State and Boise State.
First Four Out (The Hunters)
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Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten): They have plenty of chances left, but a 1–7 record in Quad 1 games is an anchor on their resume.
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California Golden Bears (ACC): Cal has been the surprise of the ACC, but an overtime loss to Syracuse last week pushed them back outside the cutline.
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Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC): The Hokies are masters of the “resume-boosting win” (they just beat Clemson), but their overall consistency is lacking.
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Missouri State (MVC) / VCU (A-10): These mid-majors are fighting the “one-bid league” narrative and need to be near-perfect in their conference tournaments.
Conference Bubble Breakdowns
The Big 12: A Meat Grinder
The Big 12 is so deep that nearly every game is a “Bubble Game.”
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UCF (17–6): Sitting in a good spot (NET Top 45), but a recent loss to Cincinnati cooled them off.
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TCU (15–9): Just pulled off a massive upset over Iowa State, moving them from “Out” to “Last Team In.”
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Baylor: Surprisingly on the bubble this late in the year; they need to stabilize their defense to avoid a slide.
The Big Ten: The “Last Four Byes” Battle
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UCLA & USC: Both are currently in the field but are trending toward the First Four. Their head-to-head matchups in late February will be play-in games in all but name.
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Indiana: Stock Up. Huge wins over Wisconsin and Oregon have provided the Hoosiers with much-needed breathing room.
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Wisconsin: Stock Down. A losing skid has the Badgers clinging to an 11-seed.
The ACC: Rising from the Dead
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Miami (FL): The Hurricanes are the biggest risers of the week. After beating UNC, they’ve vaulted into the “Last Four Byes” conversation.
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NC State: Firmly on the bubble. Their upcoming game against Miami is effectively a “winner-stays-safe” matchup.
Today’s “Make or Break” Games (Feb 14, 2026)
If you’re scoreboard-watching today, these three games will cause the most movement in tomorrow’s brackets:
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Texas at Missouri (8:30 PM ET): A literal “Last Four In” vs. “Last Four In” showdown. The winner likely moves to a safe 10-seed; the loser might fall to the “First Four Out.”
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Ohio State vs. Virginia (Nashville): A neutral-site opportunity for the Buckeyes to finally fix their Quad 1 problem.
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Gonzaga at Santa Clara: Santa Clara is trying to prove the WCC is a three-bid league. An upset over the Zags would make the Broncos a near-lock.
To round out the picture, here is a look at the elite tier. While the bubble teams are fighting for their lives, these “Protected Seeds” are jockeying for geographic preference and the right to stay close to home in the opening rounds.
The View from the Top: Projected No. 1 Seeds
As of mid-February, four teams have separated themselves from the pack. While the order shifts with every Saturday upset, these programs are the current “locks” for the top line.
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Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten): Since Dusty May took over, the Wolverines have become an efficiency monster. Currently holding the #1 overall seed in most bracketology models, they’ve combined a veteran backcourt with a top-five defense. Their recent win over Ohio State solidified their grip on the top spot.
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Arizona Wildcats (Big 12): Despite a hard-fought loss at Kansas earlier this week, Tommy Lloyd’s squad remains a juggernaut. They lead the nation in scoring and boast a “unanimous” feel among AP voters. Their path through the new-look Big 12 has given them more Quad 1 wins than anyone in the country.
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Duke Blue Devils (ACC): Even with a heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss to rival North Carolina, the Blue Devils’ resume is bulletproof. They have elite non-conference wins and a frontcourt that likely features two top-five NBA draft picks.
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Houston Cougars (Big 12): The metric darlings. Kelvin Sampson has once again built the #1 adjusted defense in the country. Houston recently leapfrogged UConn for the final #1 seed after a dominant stretch through the midweek Big 12 slate.
The Contenders: The No. 2 Seed Line
The gap between a 1-seed and a 2-seed is razor-thin this year. If any of the teams above stumble in their conference tournaments, these three are ready to pounce:
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UConn Huskies (Big East): The back-to-back-to-back dream is alive. They briefly slid to the 2-line after a loss to St. John’s, but their experience makes them the team nobody wants in their regional.
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Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12): “Hilton Magic” has been in full effect. They have a case for a 1-seed based on their NET ranking, but they need to win the Big 12 regular-season title to clinch it.
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Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten): Life after Zach Edey has been surprisingly smooth. Purdue has pivoted to a faster, perimeter-oriented attack that has them sitting second in the Big Ten standings.
The “One-Seed” Battle to Watch: Michigan vs. Arizona
The selection committee’s biggest headache right now is deciding who gets the No. 1 Overall Seed.
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Michigan has the better “advanced metrics” (KenPom/Torvik).
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Arizona has the better “eye test” and high-end volume of wins.
The winner of this debate will likely get to choose their path through the Midwest Region (Chicago), which is considered the “easiest” travel route to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
