Thursday night at Lambeau pairs two teams coming off losses and two units that have spent the season at the bottom of the league. Green Bay averages 2.9 yards per carry, the worst mark in the NFL. Carolina allows 5.2 yards per carry, also the worst in the NFL. Something has to give. For fantasy managers, that matchup and a Panthers secondary missing three cornerbacks are the two things that matter most. The Packers (4-3) host the Panthers (3-3) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The Injury Picture
Carolina ruled out four players: edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (hamstring, his second straight missed game), cornerback Akayleb Evans (triceps/knee), and guards Damien Lewis (knee) and Torricelli Simpkins III (ankle). Losing Evans is the one that matters most for fantasy. Starting corners Jaycee Horn (quad) and Mike Jackson (groin) have been on injured reserve since Week 3, so the Panthers now go into a primetime road game without any of their top three corners. Bryce Young (knee) and receiver Jalen Coker (shoulder) both finished the week as full participants with no game designation.
Green Bay ruled out linebacker Zaire Franklin (shin), center Sean Rhyan (high ankle sprain) and right guard Travis Glover (knee). Losing two starting interior linemen makes an already struggling line weaker. John Williams is the expected center, with Kevin Zeitler and Mekhi Becton the leading options at right guard. Receiver Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot) is questionable after missing Monday and Tuesday. He was upgraded to limited at Wednesday’s walkthrough, and NFL on Prime Video’s James Palmer reports the Packers expect him to play. Inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff, so check before you lock anything in.
Green Bay: Where the Points Come From
Christian Watson: Start With Confidence
Watson is having the best season of his career: 34 catches, 595 yards and six touchdowns through seven games, an average of 17.5 yards per catch. Last week in Detroit he caught five of eight targets for 57 yards. That’s a quiet line for him, but the volume was there. The setup is ideal: a vertical receiver against a defense whose fourth- and fifth-string corners will be on the field. Without Phillips, Carolina will have a harder time pressuring Jordan Love before he can throw deep. Watson is a WR2 with WR1 upside this week.
Matthew Golden: Volume Says Yes, Health Says Check
Golden saw a team-high 12 targets in Detroit but turned them into just six catches for 39 yards. Those targets are what stands out for fantasy, and a depleted Carolina secondary should help his efficiency. The risk is a receiver with two injuries on a short week who could be on a snap count. If he’s active, he’s a reasonable flex. If he’s out, Savion Williams (3-47 on three targets last week) is the likely beneficiary, with Bo Melton and J. Michael Sturdivant behind him. Williams would be a deep-league dart, not someone to plug in blind in a 10-team league.
Josh Jacobs: The Matchup Finally Matches the Name
Jacobs came back last week after six weeks on the commissioner’s exempt list and ran 11 times for 36 yards. That 3.3 average fits a line that has made every Packers back look slow. Even so, he gave fantasy managers a usable day by catching five of seven targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. That receiving work is his floor. His ceiling is this run defense: Carolina is last in the league at 5.2 yards allowed per carry and just gave up a 43-13 beating to Tampa Bay that was over early. The worry is Green Bay’s patched interior line, but the matchup and his role in the passing game make Jacobs an RB2 with upside. He should get more than 11 carries now that he’s another week removed from his layoff. MarShawn Lloyd (six carries, two catches last week) is only a handcuff.
Tucker Kraft and Jordan Love
Kraft has 29 catches for 297 yards and two touchdowns, and he scored on four catches for 48 yards against Detroit. With Watson and Golden taking most of the targets, his weekly ceiling is limited, but he stays a low-end TE1 because of how few tight ends you can count on. Love threw 45 passes for 274 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in Detroit. Against this secondary, and with Carolina’s pass rush missing Phillips, he’s a solid QB1 this week.
Carolina: Who Survives a Road Primetime Spot
Tetairoa McMillan: Volume Keeps Him in Lineups
McMillan has 36 catches on 54 targets for 511 yards and two touchdowns in six games. Last week’s 4-40 on six targets came in a game where Young completed 14 of 27 passes for 163 yards with two interceptions. McMillan has seen at least five targets in every game. That steady target share is why you start him as a WR2 even with the ugly week behind him. If Green Bay builds a lead, Carolina has to throw.
Chuba Hubbard: Game Script Is the Risk
Hubbard has been one of the more reliable backs in fantasy: 96 carries for 459 yards (4.8 per carry) and four rushing touchdowns, plus 15 catches for 112 yards and two scores. Last week he got only seven carries after Carolina fell behind 17-0 early. Another early deficit at Lambeau would cut his workload the same way. Green Bay allows 3.9 yards per carry, much tougher than the matchup Jacobs gets. Hubbard is still an RB2 because of his role and his receiving work, but his upside depends on Carolina keeping the game close. Anthony Tyus III and Trevor Etienne split the leftovers and can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups.
Bryce Young and the Tight Ends
Young threw two interceptions and lost a fumble against Tampa Bay, and Carolina turned it over four times. He’ll be on the road behind a line missing both starting guards. He’s a two-QB-league starter only. Darren Waller caught one pass for a 50-yard touchdown last week, which is exactly the kind of boom-or-bust line you’d expect from a tight end who saw two targets. Treat him as a streamer for desperate bye-week managers, not a dependable starter.
Lineup Calls
- Start: Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tetairoa McMillan
- Start with role concerns: Chuba Hubbard (game script), Tucker Kraft (target competition)
- Check inactives first: Matthew Golden. If he’s out, Savion Williams moves up as a deep-league flex
- Sit: Bryce Young in 1QB leagues, Darren Waller outside of deep streaming, any Carolina backup running back
- Defense: Green Bay’s D/ST is a viable streamer at home against a Carolina offense that just turned it over four times. Carolina’s D/ST should be on your bench
The headline here is the Green Bay run game against a Carolina defense that can’t stop the run. If Jacobs gets enough carries to take advantage, the Packers can control the game, and that’s the script that helps every Green Bay player you start while hurting Hubbard. If the Packers’ patched line can’t open running lanes, Watson’s deep targets carry this offense anyway.
See today's NFL lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.