Four games into the season, fantasy managers are staring at box scores that look nothing like their draft-day projections. Some of that is real: injuries in Oklahoma City, Utah and Charlotte have handed out minutes and shots that will not be taken back soon. Some of it is shooting variance that will be gone by Thanksgiving. The job this week is separating the two. Here are five of the loudest early lines, what is driving them and what to do about each.
Ty Jerome, Grizzlies: Sell High
Jerome opened the season with a career-high 45 points on 17-of-25 shooting against Utah, a Grizzlies opening-night record that broke Ja Morant’s 44 from 2020. He followed with 28 at Golden State and 31 at Sacramento, and even after a quiet Monday he sits at 29.8 points per game with 6.3 assists for a 4-0 Memphis team.
The usage is real. With Morant now in Portland, Jerome is the starting point guard and the first option. The problem is the trend line underneath the scoring. His field-goal percentage has fallen every game: 17-of-25, then 11-of-22, then 8-of-17, then 4-of-15 in Monday’s 110-105 win at Utah. The Sacramento game was propped up by a 14-of-14 night at the line. Across four games he is a 37% three-point shooter on under seven attempts a night, and he has added just three steals and one block total, so almost all of his value comes from points and assists.
A guard who had never scored 45 in a game before last Wednesday is not going to hold a 30-point pace over 82 games, and his name value will never be higher than it is right now. If someone in your league is willing to pay top-30 value, take it. In 9-cat formats especially, a package built around a steadier guard with defensive stats is a win.
Domantas Sabonis, Kings: Hold, but Recalibrate
Sabonis is shooting 31-of-42 (73.8%) from the field with 16.5 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game in 36.3 minutes. He already has a triple-double, 27 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists against Portland, and posted 20, 14 and 8 in Tuesday’s 130-103 loss at San Antonio.
The rebounds and assists are his floor and they are not going anywhere; he is the hub of a Sacramento offense that has nobody else who can run it from the elbow. What will slide is the efficiency. He is taking only 10.5 shots a game, so his scoring tops out around 20, and 74% shooting on that volume will drift toward the low 60s. He also has zero blocks and 3.5 turnovers a game, both real drags in category leagues.
The bigger worry is the team. The Kings are 0-4 and gave up 80 first-half points to the Spurs. A rebuilding team can trim a veteran center’s minutes in the second half of the season, which is exactly when fantasy playoffs arrive. For now, hold him and enjoy the counting stats. If a manager offers a clear top-15 return built on his current percentage, listen.
Brandon Miller, Hornets: Hold in 9-Cat, Buy in Points Leagues
Miller has scored 34 and 39 in his last two games, the 39 a new career high in Monday’s 110-103 win over Washington, topping the 38 he dropped on Detroit in November 2024. Charlotte is 3-1, Kon Knueppel and Coby White remain sidelined, Grant Williams also sat Monday, and Miller has absorbed the shots: 23 field-goal attempts per game, more than 11 of them from three.
That volume is the headline, and it comes with a cost. He is shooting 37.0% from the field and 12-of-45 (26.7%) from deep, and he bottomed out at 2-of-14 in a 128-81 loss to Atlanta. The upside is that he is contributing across the board defensively, with five steals and five blocks in four games, and he is a reliable 85% free-throw shooter so far (17-of-20).
In points leagues, raw shot volume is gold, and his three-point percentage has nowhere to go but up. Buy him if his manager is spooked by the Atlanta dud. In 9-cat, the field-goal percentage drag is real until Knueppel and White return and his shot diet normalizes, so hold rather than paying a premium.
Ajay Mitchell, Thunder: Add or Buy Now
Oklahoma City is 4-0, but Sunday’s 108-101 win over the Clippers was costly. Jalen Williams suffered a dislocated left ankle and fractured fibula, and Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder. Both need surgery that could end their seasons. On Monday the Thunder were also without Chet Holmgren (right patellar tendinitis), and Alex Caruso left with a sprained right ankle.
Mitchell is the clearest beneficiary. He had 18 points, six rebounds, four assists and three steals in 27 minutes in the Clippers game, then made his first start of the season Monday and scored a career-high 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting with five assists in a 125-114 win over Phoenix. Through four games he has eight steals and is shooting 51% from the field.
This is not a hot streak; it is a role change on an unbeaten team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still dominates the ball, but the secondary creator and starter’s minutes now belong to Mitchell for the foreseeable future. If he is somehow still on your waiver wire, he is the top add of the week. If he is rostered, his manager may still value him as a bench guard, so make an offer.
Ace Bailey, Jazz: Buy Before the Price Moves
Utah took a big hit Monday. The Jazz announced Tuesday that Jaren Jackson Jr. has a torn MCL in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in six weeks; ESPN’s sources put his timeline at six to eight weeks, with no surgery expected. Lauri Markkanen sprained his right wrist, his shooting wrist, and is day-to-day. Jusuf Nurkic is already out with a toe injury.
That leaves frontcourt minutes and shots for Bailey, and his workload is already climbing: 24, 22, 29 and then 34 minutes on Monday, when he posted 17 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three blocks for his second straight double-double. On the season he is averaging 13.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks on 52.5% shooting, with seven made threes.
The steals column is empty so far, but a forward giving you boards, blocks and threes on efficient shooting is a 9-cat asset, and the minutes should keep climbing while Jackson is out. Utah at 1-3 has every reason to let its young wing play through mistakes. Add him in any league where he is available; in dynasty, this stretch could be when his price permanently jumps.
The Takeaway
The rule for Week 2 is simple: trust minutes, question percentages. Mitchell and Bailey are gaining playing time because of injuries that will last weeks or months, which makes their production sticky. Jerome and Sabonis are producing on shooting numbers that cannot hold, which makes now the moment to cash them in or at least price them correctly. Miller sits in between, with real volume and fake-bad efficiency. Act on the first group before your league catches up.
See today's NBA lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.