Every October, fantasy hockey managers get fooled by the same stat. Over 10 to 14 games, a winger can score on nearly half his shots or on almost none of them, and neither rate tells you much about the next five months. Shot volume, ice time and power-play role are what hold up. With most teams 11 to 14 games in, here is where the gap between results and process is widest, and what to do about it. All figures are through Monday’s games.
Sell high: the shooting-percentage spikes
Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Colorado
Lehkonen has 10 goals in 12 games, which puts him on a pace he has never come close to. The problem is that those goals have come on just 22 shots, a 45.5 percent shooting rate. His career rate is 12.1 percent across 1,447 shots, and his best season was 27 goals in 2024-25. He’s a useful player on a deep Colorado roster, logging 18:57 a night, but he has only two power-play points and fewer than two shots per game. If someone in your league will pay for a top-50 forward, take the deal. At his career rate, 22 shots turns into about three goals, not ten.
Mark Stone, RW, Vegas, and Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville
Same pattern, smaller scale. Stone has 8 goals on 26 shots (30.8 percent) and Stamkos has 7 on 23 (30.4 percent). Both still have strong power-play roles. Stone has six power-play points and Stamkos has seven, so they won’t fall off a cliff. But both are shooting at roughly two shots per game, and their goal pace will drop toward that. Keep them in your lineup and shop them to anyone who’s buying the goal total.
Vasily Podkolzin, RW, Edmonton
Podkolzin is the most interesting case on the list. His 13 points in 12 games come with real usage: 19:08 a night and six power-play points on an Oilers team where Connor McDavid already has 34 points. That role is worth holding. The 8 goals on 27 shots (29.6 percent) are not. In 12-team leagues, keep him rostered while he holds that power-play role, but value him as a 50-point winger, not the pace he’s on now.
Alexis Lafrenière, LW, NY Rangers
Lafrenière’s 9 goals in 14 games come on 32 shots, a 28.1 percent rate. The shot volume is better than Lehkonen’s and he’s playing 19:01 a night, so there’s more underneath it. Expect the goals to slow down sharply. If a manager in your league values him as a breakout, find out what they’d give you.
Hold, don’t sell: Kaprizov and Stützle
Kirill Kaprizov has 13 goals in 13 games at a 29.5 percent rate, and Tim Stützle has 8 goals on 24 shots (33.3 percent). Both will come down. But both play more than 21 minutes a night, both are top-line, first-unit players, and in Kaprizov’s case 44 shots in 13 games is real volume. You won’t get full value for them in a trade, because everyone knows their rates are too high. Keep them, enjoy the head start and expect their point totals to settle.
Buy low: the shooters due to warm up
Matt Boldy, LW, Minnesota
This is the clearest buy on the board. Boldy has 59 shots in 13 games, the kind of volume elite goal scorers produce, and he’s turned them into just 5 goals (8.5 percent). He’s playing 21:42 a night. His career shooting rate is 12.6 percent on 1,179 shots, and he scored 42 goals on 254 shots last season. If he simply shoots his career rate going forward, the goals will come in bunches. His only weak spot is the power play, where he has just two points so far. If his manager is frustrated that Kaprizov is getting all the headlines in Minnesota, that’s your chance to trade for him.
Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Minnesota
Eriksson Ek has 44 shots and 3 goals (6.8 percent) while playing 20:16 a night. In leagues that count shots, he’s already helping you. Goals are the only thing missing. He’s a cheap trade target and a must-roster player in multi-category leagues.
Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey
Hughes has 12 points in 11 games, so he’s hardly struggling, but just 3 of those are goals, on 39 shots (7.7 percent). He’s averaging more than three shots per game at 20:24 a night, and his shooting rate is far below his career norm. Any manager disappointed in his goal total is underrating him. Buy now, before a multi-goal night raises the price.
Mitch Marner, RW, Vegas
Marner’s start has been mostly about assists: 2 goals and 10 assists in 11 games, with just a 7.1 percent shooting rate on 28 shots. He has always been more of a playmaker than a shooter, so don’t expect a scoring surge. But his goal total has room to roughly double without any change to how he plays, and the assists are already there. He’s a solid target if his manager is worried about the slow start.
Jackson Blake, RW, Carolina
Blake has 13 points in 13 games, but only 2 goals on 38 shots, a 5.3 percent rate. He’s playing 18:19 a night for a Carolina team that leads the East with 20 points. In deeper leagues, a player whose points are coming almost entirely from assists while he’s still putting three shots a game on net is due for some goals.
Defensemen: the goals will come
Shooting rates for defensemen are low in any season, but a few top blueliners are well below even that.
- Seth Jones, Florida: 1 goal on 33 shots while playing 24:54 a night, with 12 points and seven of them on the power play. The role is elite. The goals will follow.
- Roman Josi, Nashville: 1 goal on 27 shots, 25:20 a night, 12 points including eight on the power play. Josi’s role hasn’t changed, and he’s a great buy-low target if his manager is focused on the goal column.
- Quinn Hughes, Minnesota: 3 goals on 38 shots and 16 points while playing a heavy 26:58 a night. He’s already a top fantasy defenseman, and his goal total is the one thing still to come.
- Adam Fox, NY Rangers: 17 points in 14 games, but just 1 goal on 17 shots. Fox has never been a volume shooter, so keep expectations modest on goals; the assists are the reason to roster him.
Volume to trust
A few hot starts are built on shots, not luck, and those players are the ones to keep. Nathan MacKinnon has 50 shots and is shooting a perfectly normal 14.0 percent on his way to 21 points. Brandon Hagel also has 50 shots, with 7 goals at 14.0 percent. Kyle Connor has 9 goals on 49 shots (18.4 percent), which is high but backed by heavy volume. Hold all three with confidence.
The takeaway
When you look at trades this week, check the shots column before the goals column. Lehkonen, Stone, Stamkos, Podkolzin and Lafrenière are the hot starts to sell before their shooting rates fall. Boldy, Eriksson Ek, Jack Hughes, Marner and Blake are the goal totals to buy before they rise. And Seth Jones and Josi are the defensemen whose roles already tell you more than their goal counts.
See today's NHL lines on DFS Lines, each one set against the player's last ten games.